Move from a fuzzy situation to a decision you can defend. Describe the choice, the options and the facts you have, and get a SWOT in which every item is tied to a fact you gave, the options compared side by side against criteria you can adjust, one clear recommendation, a pre-mortem (how this could fail) and a list of what would make you change your mind. It ends as a one-page memo you can hand to a manager or a board.